I’ve noticed that some people try to disregard the severity of the novel coronavirus because it has a “99% survival rate. ” The claim is that since the mortality rate is low, we should just go on to live our lives.
In reality, 99% survival does not accurately describe the severity of the novel coronavirus. More importantly, it is disturbing that Christians are citing that number while disregarding (or minimizing) the reality that it still means there are millions who died and millions who are facing long-term complications.
Understanding the Impact of COVID-19
Mortality
Epidemiologists use different measures to evaluate the severity of infectious diseases.
CFR (case fatality rate) looks at the number of deaths from a particular disease vs. the total number of people diagnosed with the disease. Here is a 5-minute video going over some limitations with CFR.
IFR (infection fatality rate) looks at the number of deaths from a particular disease vs. the total number of infected individuals. It takes into account cases where people may have been asymptomatic or were not tested.
The World Health Organization has a resource explaining how they estimate mortality and the limitations to these estimates.
Is 99% an Accurate Description?
When the IFR is examined by age, we see a broader picture than “99% survival.”
The CDC has different scenarios to calculate IFR by age.
0-19 years: 0.002% -0.01%
20-49 years: 0.007% – 0.03%
50-69 years: 0.25% – 1.0%
70+ years: 2.8% – 9.3%
Their current best estimates are seen below.
0-19 years: 0.003%
20-49 years: 0.02%
50-69 years: 0.5%
70+ years: 5.4%
A meta-analysis concluded the following.
These results indicate that COVID-19 is hazardous not only for the elderly but also for middle-aged adults, for whom the infection fatality rate is two orders of magnitude greater than the annualized risk of a fatal automobile accident and far more dangerous than seasonal influenza.
Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications
However, the CDC cautions that “The scenarios are intended to advance public health preparedness and planning. They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19. “
Age isn’t the only factor where we see differences in fatality rate based on race, ethnicity, sex, education, and income level. Here’s an interesting perspective that considers income inequality pre-novel coronavirus to be a strong predictor for COVID-19 deaths. Marginalized communities are more likely to suffer bigger consequences from the novel coronavirus.
Survival Doesn’t Mean Health
The impacts of COVID-19 can’t be reduced to something like flipping a switch between healthy and dead. The reality is that COVID-19 can cause long-term symptoms and complications. Because COVID-19 is new, they’re still studying this, but we already know that it can impact a wide array of organ systems. In fact, there are efforts to study “long COVID.”
Healthline: A Mild COVID-19 Case May Still Result in Long-Term Symptoms
Harvard: The hidden long-term cognitive effects of COVID-19
NHS: Long-term effects of coronavirus (long COVID)
NIH launches new initiative to study “Long COVID”
While the 1-2% mortality rate is accurate, what it actually means for our communities requires us to consider our neighbors who are more vulnerable than ourselves and to reflect on the long-term health impacts of COVID-19.
We also should look at those 1-2% of people who dies because of COVID-19.
The 1%
It’s easy to get caught up in statistics. 1% doesn’t sound that bad. But we have to recognize that each and every life lost was a person. They were made in the image and likeness of God. They should be treated with dignity.
1% doesn't sound that bad. But we have to recognize that each and every life lost was a person. Click To TweetBut, it’s important to humanize the numbers. Each one of these data points has a story, a life, a contribution to society. If anything, this drives motivation, at least for me, to keep soldiering on.
Dr. Katelyn Jetelina
Translation
This 1% number comes out to approximately 2.6 million lives lost. It is estimated that over half a million people in the United States died from coronavirus (see the latest statistics here).
What half a million deaths looks like
This milestone of 500,000 deaths is simply unfathomable. Not because it’s a number and a milestone. But, because that’s 500,000 parents, children, sisters, brothers, aunts, uncles, community leaders, friends, people.
Friendly Neighbor Epidemiologist
Excess Deaths
We recognize that our time on earth is not forever. People die. Though we mourn the loss, we as Christians have hope for eternal life. But this hope in the resurrection does not preclude grief over the deaths.
Another (disturbing) comment I’ve heard from people regarding those who died from COVID-related causes is that they were going to die anyway. Not only is this disrespectful to those who have dies and their loved ones, but it is also inaccurate.
Another measure used during pandemics is “excess deaths.” Excess deaths are the number of deaths that exceed the expected number of deaths over a certain time period. This number can give us a bigger picture of the impact of coronavirus.
The available data shows us that not only are there a higher number of excess deaths, but a large portion of them can be attributed to COVID-19 (some resources peer-reviewed and not peer-reviewed: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5).
Comorbidities
I’ve also seen people bring up that most people who die from Coronavirus have some sort of comorbidities.
People with Chronic Illnesses Matter
I imagine that this is not people intend to say, but when you try to brush off Coronavirus because it “only kills people who are already sick,” you are saying that the life of a person who is sick is worth less that the life of a healthy person.
“But Only 6% Actually Died”
Late last summer, there was some outcry about “only 6% of the reported COVID deaths were ‘actually’ from COVID.” This was based on a misunderstanding of some data from the CDC. This erroneous claim has been thoroughly debunked. I’ve included some easy-to-understand explanations below.
@christinaaaaaaanp
What it boils down to is that though there were other factors that contributed to these people’s deaths, they would not have died if it weren’t for COVID.
So yes, maybe you aren’t likely to die from COVID because you’re a healthy young adult, but it’s very likely that there is someone in your life who could face serious complications or death if they contracted COVID.
“They Made Themselves Sick”
It doesn’t matter.
Let’s disregard that the claim that a person with a chronic illness made themselves sick is usually accompanied by hateful comments about people who are sick and/or are based on some major information.
I’ll say it again: it doesn’t matter if a person “made” themselves sick. They are still made in the image and likeness of God. They still deserved to be treated with respect. Their lives have value.
As Christians, we have a responsibility to love all our neighbors, even those with whom we disagree.
Summary
Though the 1-2% IFR is accurate, we also have to consider that the IFR is different in different populations. Coronavirus affects vulnerable populations more severely.
Though people may not die from COVID, the may face long-term symptoms. These symptoms can impact many different parts of the body.
Comorbidities do not invalidate COVID deaths.
Blaming people with comorbidities for their illness or saying that we don’t need to worry about the pandemic because they’re the ones at risk.
Love your neighbor: slow the spread.
Love your neighbor: slow the spread.Why Christians Should Care About a Disease with "99% Survival" Click To Tweet
